A potential deal to end the war in Ukraine could lead to a decrease in oil prices, according to Bank of America. Analysts predict that eased access to Russian oil supplies could result in Brent crude oil prices dropping between $5 and $10 per barrel.
The US and Russia are currently discussing the possibility of ending the war without Ukraine’s participation, which has sparked bearish geopolitical factors for oil prices. However, if talks result in a deal, sanctions relief on Moscow’s crude oil and petroleum product exports could lead to an increase in global refining margins.
On the other hand, the resumption of Kurdistan’s exports would add approximately 400,000 barrels per day to the oil supply, adding to the bearish signals for oil prices. OPEC+ plans to start adding supply in April, which may be affected by a potential peace deal in Ukraine.
The US sanctions on Iran under President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign could support oil prices, but U.S. oil producers are unlikely to boost drilling at $10 a barrel lower prices due to their focus on capital efficiencies and cost cuts.
Source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Ukraine-Peace-Talks-Could-Sink-Brent-Oil-by-10.html