Oil prices are expected to be closely watched as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+ is set to make its decision on oil production in August. The group, consisting of eight countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will review their cuts during a meeting on July 6.
The cuts, which have been gradually unwinding since April, have resulted in a daily reduction of 2.2 million barrels. Saudi Arabia is reportedly pushing for an accelerated pace, while Russia’s stance has shifted from cautious to open, suggesting it may support another hike if consensus is reached.
Despite the recent slump, oil fundamentals are mixed. Tightening middle distillate markets and surging Chinese imports of Iranian crude support the bulls, but oversupply concerns remain. OPEC’s outlook remains bullish, with Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais projecting growth of 1.3 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026.
The July 6 meeting will also be watched to gauge the unity of the group. With Russia signaling flexibility and Saudi Arabia pressing for market share, traders are anticipating a unified decision that could impact oil prices. The US inventory draws, European and Asian middle distillate markets tightening, and Chinese imports of Iranian crude are also supporting bullish views. However, oversupply concerns persist if OPEC+ continues to add barrels.
The oil price has recently stabilized after a 12% weekly plunge, with Brent briefly topping $77 before falling to $68. The key technical pivot is now at $65.15, below which could trigger another wave of selling, while above could spur short-covering towards $67.44 or higher.
Source: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-to-Call-the-Shots-Live-as-Russia-Backs-In-Meeting-Decision.html