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People are betting on Philadelphia’s high temperatures this Sunday in a unique twist for the Super Bowl. Over $5 million has been wagered on daily highs, with Kalshi Inc., a trading company, offering bets on temperature ranges, January snowfall, and other weather-related gambles. These bets operate like prediction markets, where participants choose yes or no based on probability changes throughout the day. For example, a bet on 31-32°F could yield $165 for a winning $100 wager in the morning but lose by noon if probabilities shift.
Kalshi’s expansion into weather trading during the U.S. election campaign was a significant success, with over $100 million in bets placed during the race. This trend shows how political events can drive betting trends, even in unusual markets like weather predictions. The company now offers diverse options, from AI lawsuits to sports events, and is planning to continue its focus on weather trading post election.
As for specific weather forecasts, Friday provided a cautionary note: bettors who followed the 31-32°F range saw their investments turn into losses as temperatures rose to 33°F at the airport. Kalshi’s leaders, including former MIT students and political figures, suggest long-term stability in this niche market. With the Super Bowl approaching, the weather game is likely set to continue attracting attention.
Source: https://www.inquirer.com/news/weather-betting-kalshi-philadelphia-eagles-20250125.html