Russian President Vladimir Putin has remained silent on the collapse of his ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, sparking uncertainty over Russia’s future military presence in the region. The lack of public comment from Putin underscores the Kremlin’s priority that the war in Ukraine has become.
Assad’s fall is a painful topic for Moscow, with some analysts stating that it’s better not to discuss the issue. Last year, Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu boasted about Russia’s troops remaining deployed in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, but Russian peacekeeping forces pulled out of Nagorno-Karabakh in May.
Analysts believe a best-case scenario for Russia could be scaling down its military presence at Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval base in the Mediterranean. However, this wouldn’t fulfill Putin’s earlier ambitions to project might on NATO’s doorstep.
The security situation in Syria remains tenuous, making it unlikely that Russia will station nuclear-capable weaponry there even if it strikes an agreement to hold onto its bases. Kremlin officials have sought to engage with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, but some European Union officials say they would seek to make Russia’s exit from Syria a condition of lifting sanctions on the country.
Putin made clear that Syria has become a secondary concern, claiming his troops “hold the strategic initiative” along the entire front line in Ukraine. His defense minister stated that ensuring victory in Ukraine was the military’s top priority, but nothing about its plans or aims in the Middle East was mentioned.
The Kremlin is trying to fill the silence by claiming Russia fulfilled its mission in Syria and attributing any instability to Western actions. However, with Putin’s priorities now focused on winning in Ukraine, his future security hangs in the balance.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-syria.html