Vladimir Putin’s decision to abandon Bashar al-Assad in Syria marks a significant defeat for Russia. The move comes after Assad’s forces were swiftly defeated by Syrian rebels, who overtook Aleppo and Damascus within 10 days. This loss will have far-reaching consequences for Russia’s regional influence.
Russia had invested heavily in the Assad regime, providing military support and diplomatic backing since the early 2010s. Putin saw al-Assad as a key ally in his efforts to expand Russian power projection in the Mediterranean. However, with Syria’s war suddenly reheating last month, Russia realized that its presence was no longer tenable.
The loss of Assad not only undermines Russia’s military capabilities but also erodes its diplomatic leverage in the region. The Sunni Arab states had long opposed Putin’s support for al-Assad, an Alawite leader. Now, with Assad gone, Putin risks losing respect from autocratic leaders and the Americans. This setback will make it harder for Russia to justify its actions in Ukraine.
The implications of this defeat are significant. With Iran weakened and no longer supporting Syria’s regime, Israel and Turkey will gain more influence in the region. Israel can now pursue strikes against Iranian proxies with greater ease, while Turkey has already accumulated leverage over Russia since the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia may still try to retain its military bases in Syria, but its influence in the country will never be the same. The loss of Hmeimim and Tartus will also leave a significant gap in Russia’s regional power projection. Putin’s decision to abandon Assad marks a turning point in his foreign policy ambitions.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/opinion/syria-assad-russia-putin.html