The under bet for the Rams vs Texans matchup is looking like a good value pick, despite Matthew Stafford’s lingering back injury. While Stafford’s injury risk can’t be ignored, his lack of preseason play and training camp reps could impact his performance in Week 1.
The Rams’ defense, which was undervalued last season, is expected to cause problems for the Texans. With rookie edge rusher Jared Verse entering NFL action early, the team showed improvement post-bye week, including a significant boost in disruption rate. The Texans will face a Texans defense that saw the highest pressure disruption rate of any team last season, without stalwart left tackle Laremy Tunsil.
Furthermore, this is a spot where you can take advantage of an undervalued Dolphins offense led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With his injury risk largely behind him for Week 1, the Dolphins’ passing unit was a top-10 efficiency unit last season and should be able to exploit the Colts’ bottom-tier defense.
Overall, with Stafford’s injury concerns and the Rams’ defense poised to disrupt the Texans, this under bet looks like a good value pick.
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/bet-nfl-betting-2025-best-week-1-bets