Asteroid 2024 YR4’s odds of impacting the Earth have decreased significantly, from 3.1% to 0.16-0.27%. In contrast, the chances of the moon being hit by the asteroid have increased from 0.3% to 1.2%. While a lunar impact is still unlikely, it could provide scientists with a unique opportunity to study the asteroid and moon.
Unlike an Earth impact, which would pose a threat, a lunar collision could be beneficial for science. The impact could reveal details about the asteroid’s composition and structure as well as the lunar subsurface. Understanding the dynamics of this event could aid future asteroid redirection efforts. As 2024 YR4 approaches the Earth, all eyes will be on it, regardless of its final destination.
Source: https://boingboing.net/2025/03/04/city-killer-asteroid-now-more-likely-to-strike-the-moon.html