A surprise rebel offensive has seized Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, marking a significant blow to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The takeover could weaken Iran’s regional sway, but also spark a new cycle of violence and instability.
The opposition gained control of Aleppo eight years after they were routed, largely thanks to Israel’s damage to Iran’s “axis of resistance” – particularly the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah. With Russia distracted by its fight in Ukraine, the Assad regime faces challenges defending itself.
As the battle lines change, it is unclear whether the rebels can consolidate their gains or if the government and its allies can mount a significant defense. Russian forces have undertaken airstrikes to support the regime, but air power alone may not be enough to beat back the rebels.
Other outside actors are watching the situation closely. Turkey has been seeking to normalize ties with Syria, and may renew efforts to influence a successor government in Damascus. Iran is deeply invested in Syria, but its strategic position could be further eroded by the rebel attack. Israel benefits from Assad’s problems in Syria, while the United States has around 900 military personnel in Syria to help contain the Islamic State.
The situation in Aleppo is fluid and rife with misinformation, making it difficult to gauge the rebels’ prospects or the regime’s response. The international community must remain cautious as this new phase of the Syrian conflict unfolds.
Source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/analysis-what-syrias-reignited-civil-war-means-for-the-middle-east