Economists warn recession risks are rising due to U.S. tariffs on key trade partners like Mexico, Canada, and China. Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics now estimate a 20-35% chance of an economic downturn, citing trade wars and market instability. President Trump’s recent tariffs triggered stock market plunges and retaliatory measures, deepening global economic tensions.
Analysts highlight slowing GDP growth, declining consumer confidence, and weaker job reports as red flags. Fitch Ratings’ Olu Sonola called the recession threat “real and cannot be ignored,” noting tariff-driven uncertainty could cut consumer spending (70% of U.S. GDP) and business investments.
Critics link rising risks to Trump’s trade policies, which have sparked retaliatory tariffs and disrupted global supply chains. While Trump claims tariffs will ultimately benefit America, economists warn prolonged disputes risk layoffs, income losses, and a self-reinforcing economic slowdown. Moody’s Mark Zandi emphasized, “Recessions are bad—people lose jobs, wealth, and face tough financial choices.”
The path forward depends on policy shifts, but experts caution the window for avoiding a downturn is narrowing.
Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/recession-risks-rising-economists/story?id=119626246