JPMorgan Chase has downgraded its forecast for US economic growth to -0.3% due to the impact of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump’s administration. The bank’s chief economist, Michael Feroli, expects real GDP contraction, depressed hiring, and an unemployment rate of 5.3%. Other banks have also reduced their projections, with Barclays slashing its forecast for GDP to contract in 2025, consistent with a recession. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by June to bring the benchmark into a range of 2.75-3% despite rising inflation.
Source: https://fortune.com/2025/04/05/trump-tariffs-us-recession-outlook-gdp-unemployment-stagflation-inflation-fed