Two top weather agencies forecast that the world will experience more record-breaking heat in the next several years, pushing Earth’s deadly and uncomfortable extremes to unprecedented levels. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.K. Meteorological Office (UK Met Office) released a five-year forecast warning of an 80% chance of another annual temperature record being broken within the next five years.
The projections are based on over 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by global centers of scientists. If this prediction comes true, it would be the first time since 2015 that the world’s annual temperature will exceed the Paris climate accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). In fact, there’s an 86% chance that one of the next five years will pass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Higher global mean temperatures are expected to lead to more extreme weather events, including stronger hurricanes, heavier precipitation, droughts, and wildfires. The WMO and UK Met Office warn that the world is already 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since the mid-1800s, and this trend is expected to continue.
The Arctic ice cap, which will melt at a rate three times faster than the rest of the world, will experience significant warming, causing seas to rise even more. Scientists emphasize that global temperatures are not going back down after temporary natural El Nino cycles; instead, record temperatures become the new normal.
While some scientists see this as a shocking prediction, others say it’s what the science is telling us. As one scientist noted, “It’s not something anyone wants to see, but that’s what the science is telling us.” The projections highlight the urgent need for climate action and better protection from extreme weather events.
Source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/prepare-yourself-for-several-years-of-killer-heat-top-weather-forecasters-warn