Geomagnetic storms, caused by massive solar eruptions, pose a growing challenge for satellite operations and national security. New research suggests that rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere will change the way these storms impact Earth.
Scientists at the U.S. National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used advanced computer models to determine that future geomagnetic storms will have a different response due to lower atmospheric density. The study found that, by later this century, various regions of the upper atmosphere will be 20-50% less dense at the peak of a storm.
The decrease in density is attributed to higher carbon dioxide levels, which affect the thermosphere and ionosphere. Unlike the lower atmosphere, where CO2 warms emissions, it re-emits heat out into space at high altitudes, making the upper atmosphere colder and thinner. This change will result in increased drag on satellites, impacting their speed, altitude, and operational lifespan.
The researchers analyzed the impact of a 2024-like geomagnetic superstorm using an advanced modeling system that simulates the entire atmosphere from Earth’s surface to the upper thermosphere. They found that future storms may nearly triple the density increase at their peak, compared to current levels, which more than doubles it.
Understanding these changes is crucial for designing satellites and predicting space weather events. As greenhouse gas levels continue to rise, scientists must study the interconnections between the lower and upper atmosphere to better comprehend the impacts on Earth’s response to solar storms.
Source: https://phys.org/news/2025-08-atmosphere-response-geomagnetic-storms.html