A new study published in Communications Earth and Environment warns that even at just 1.5 degrees Celsius of global heating, millions of people will be forced to flee coastal regions due to sea level rise. The researchers say that current warming levels could lead to catastrophic sea level rise and mass migration by the end of the century.
The study’s authors used evidence from warm periods up to 3 million years ago, recent trends in ice loss, and climate models to predict future ice sheet change under several climate scenarios. They found that about 15,000 years ago, at the end of the last Ice Age, the rate of sea level rise was 10-fold greater than it is today.
The researchers warn that even if carbon dioxide levels are rapidly cut back on to hit the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees C of warming above the pre-industrial average, multiple meters of sea level rise are still in our future. The safe limit is likely below 1 degree C, and more research is needed to determine the actual tipping point.
Currently, one billion people live within 32 feet of sea level and around 230 million people live within 3 feet of sea level. If warming levels persist, “You’re going to see massive land migration on scales that we’ve never witnessed since modern civilization,” says Jonathan Bamber, study co-author and glaciologist at the University of Bristol.
The authors urge immediate climate action to slow the worst impacts of sea level rise. They say every inch counts, and the sooner we can halt warming, the better it is to return to safer levels further down the line.
Source: https://gizmodo.com/rising-seas-could-displace-millions-triggering-global-migration-crisis-study-warns-2000604835