New research suggests that the world’s ice sheets are on a catastrophic path of meltdown, even if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Scientists have established what a “safe limit” of warming would be for the survival of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets but found it to be out of reach.
Current projections indicate the world will warm by up to 2.9 degrees by 2100, far exceeding the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. The study’s authors believe that even sustaining current warming levels could trigger rapid ice sheet retreat and catastrophic sea level rise.
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets hold enough fresh water to raise global sea levels by approximately 213 feet. In recent decades, they have lost over 370 billion tons of ice per year. If the world fails to limit warming, it could lead to irreversible changes in global coastlines, displacing hundreds of millions of people.
The study’s findings paint a dire picture, with seas projected to surge by 0.4 inches annually by the end of the century, triggering massive land migration on scales not seen since modern civilization. To avoid these catastrophic consequences, scientists recommend limiting global warming to around 1 degree above pre-industrial levels, which would require drastic cuts in fossil fuel emissions.
However, given current trends, it appears that even achieving this target may be insufficient to save the ice sheets. The study’s authors emphasize that every fraction of a degree of warming translates to worse impacts, making limiting warming to 1.5°C an increasingly difficult goal.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/20/climate/ice-sheets-sea-level-rise