Russia’s oil exports could see a significant boost if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. The move would have far-reaching consequences for global energy markets and potentially benefit Moscow.
According to experts, Russia has been struggling with declining oil revenues due to sanctions imposed on the country over its invasion of Ukraine. However, recent US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities could reverse this trend, as spiking oil prices would increase Russian revenues.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a surge in oil prices, potentially pushing them above $100 per barrel,” said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com. This would boost Russia’s revenue and enable Moscow to continue funding its war against Ukraine.
Russia’s oil exports currently bypass the strait via Suez or Pacific routes, but a blockade could increase revenues from its 7.5 million barrels per day (bpd) exports. Asian markets like China and India might also favor Russian oil in such a scenario, further benefiting Moscow.
However, Iran relies on the strait for its own oil exports, and closure risks alienating allies like China. The US Fifth Fleet would likely intervene, escalating tensions and potentially leading to targeted disruptions rather than a full blockade.
As tensions rise, maritime experts warn of increased risks to commercial shipping in the region. Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer for the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), said Iran might attempt to disrupt commercial shipping through attacks on merchant ships or the laying of sea mines.
The US has raised concerns about preparing for a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while military officials and analysts consider missile and drone attacks as the biggest retaliatory threat by Tehran.
Source: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-putin-iran-oil-2089341