Russia is seeking to preserve its military presence in Syria amid the dramatic collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. With most of its military assets remaining at key bases, Moscow appears to be turning to diplomacy to secure its influence in the Middle East. The Kremlin has kept a sizeable airbase and naval facility in north-west Syria and Tartus, respectively, since Moscow’s military intervention helped al-Assad reclaim most of the country after nationwide protests began in 2011.
The Syrian opposition leaders have agreed to guarantee the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions, according to sources. However, observers suggest that Moscow may adopt a strategy similar to its approach with the Taliban, focusing on negotiating with those who control power rather than trying to maintain control itself. Resources such as money, oil, and gas could be offered in exchange for cooperation.
The Syrian embassy in Moscow has expressed support for the new leadership, stating that al-Assad’s escape confirms the correctness of change. In contrast, Iran’s embassy was ransacked in Damascus, highlighting Russia’s relative success in maintaining stability. Moscow’s shift in approach appears to have borne some early fruit, with Russia’s embassy remaining untouched.
As the Kremlin assesses its next move, observers note that al-Assad is now seen as a weak leader who failed to suppress unrest swiftly enough. This view may lead Russia to place much of the blame for his downfall on him. With the Assad regime no longer in power, Russia is seeking to establish new relationships with the opposition leaders and preserve its influence in Syria.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/09/moscow-reaches-out-to-new-syrian-leadership-in-move-to-secure-bases