A significant meeting between Russian and Turkish envoys in Doha has agreed on a transition plan for Syria, amid widespread instability and sectarian rivalries. The representatives of the nations, with disparate political systems and conflicting regional goals, concurred that the government of President Bashar al-Assad could not survive. They called for an urgent political transition.
Syria, a geostrategic centerpiece in the Middle East, has been abruptly upended. With 23 million people from multiple Muslim sects, Christians, Druze, and Kurds, the future of Syria is uncertain. The U.N. special envoy for Syria, Geir O. Pedersen, warned that regional and global players are nervous about a government created by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni militia with ties to Al Qaeda and ISIS.
The danger is a Libya scenario, where rival governments fought from Tripoli and Benghazi after Muammar Qaddafi’s ouster in 2011. Tunisia’s democracy has eroded since 2011, as democratically elected leaders have been imprisoned or silenced. Egypt’s government was removed in a military coup in 2013. The question is whether Syria’s uprising is the Arab Spring, Part Two.
The charismatic leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has vowed not to repeat mistakes that led to civil war in Iraq. He heralded Assad’s fall as “a victory for the Islamic nation.” The U.S. still has a ten-million-dollar bounty on his head, and H.T.S. is on the list of foreign terrorist organizations.
The envoys called the Syrian crisis a “dangerous development” for international security. They pleaded for an end to military operations that could slip into chaos. Turkey wants a new government to treat all faiths and ethnicities equally, with no revenge. The Biden Administration said it is prepared to recognize a new government if it is “credible, inclusive, and non-sectarian.”
A first step towards stability has been taken by H.T.S., appointing Mohammed al-Bashir as Prime Minister for about three months. However, the U.N. Resolution 2254 remains the legal premise for a transition, calling for a new constitution and free elections stretched over eighteen months. With time moving faster in a country where the economy is collapsing and millions have been displaced or forced into exile, the future of Syria remains uncertain.
Source: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/12/23/syria-after-assad