US President Donald Trump’s demand for India to halt Russian oil imports could lead to a global supply crisis, prompting Moscow to retaliate. India is the world’s third-largest oil importer and buys up to 2 million barrels of Russian oil daily, accounting for 2% of global supply.
If disrupted, the Indian route may prompt Russia to close the CPC pipeline from Kazakhstan, where US oil majors Chevron and Exxon hold stakes. The Kremlin views this move as leverage to force a peace deal with Ukraine by August 7-9. Trump has threatened tariffs on all US goods imports from India if Moscow does not reach an agreement.
India is heavily reliant on Russian oil imports worth $50.2 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year. Disrupting these flows would require significant trade adjustments, including increased imports of US and Middle Eastern crude or reduced refining runs. This could lead to higher diesel prices, especially in Europe.
Russia has already seen a decline in income due to global price drops and international sanctions. The loss of 2 million barrels per day exports might prompt Russia to reduce oil production from its current levels of 9 million bpd. Moscow could divert some oil to other countries or disrupt the CPC pipeline to make the West feel the pain from higher prices.
A combined stoppage would create a disruption of 3.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 3.5% of global supply. Experts warn that sanctioning Russia without spiking oil prices may be unfeasible.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-moscow-might-respond-if-trump-stops-russian-oil-india-2025-08-01