Russia’s long-standing alliance with Syria’s former president, Bashar al-Assad, has been dealt a significant blow. As Moscow takes in the embattled leader, analysts say Russia’s Middle East ambitions will likely endure.
After 13 years of overseeing the devastating civil war in Syria, Assad has fled Damascus for Moscow. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Assad decided to step down as Syrian President and leave the country, citing a peaceful transition of power.
This development marks a significant shift in Russia’s approach to the conflict. Just last week, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov referred to the groups now in control of Damascus as “terrorists,” highlighting the change in tone.
Russia has been a critical ally of Assad since entering the conflict in 2015. The country provided diplomatic support and deployed extensive airpower to defend the regime, allowing Putin to expand Russia’s naval base at Tartous and nearby airbase at Hmeimim.
The bases have proven crucial for Russia’s international ambitions, serving as launchpads for operations supporting the Syrian regime and projecting influence across the Mediterranean region and Africa. However, analysts say Moscow is unlikely to abandon its presence in Latakia due to the country’s strategic importance.
Mark Galeotti, head of Mayak Intelligence, notes that Russia relies heavily on these bases to project naval power into the Mediterranean, with Turkey posing a significant obstacle. He adds that Russia’s airbase at Hmeimim also plays a vital role in providing air support for operations in Africa, which would require cooperation from Turkey.
While some observers see Assad’s departure as a blow to Putin’s prestige, others argue it will have little impact on Russia’s regional objectives. The Middle East is crucial to Russia’s energy trade with Gulf states, civilian nuclear equipment sales, and declining arms sales due to the costly war in Ukraine.
According to Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute, Russia’s principal regional relationship with Iran remains intact, and the loss of Syria does not fundamentally alter its situation in the Middle East.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/a-blow-to-putins-prestige-what-al-assads-fall-means-for-russia