For decades, scientists relied on coastal landmarks and tide gauges to track sea levels. However, with the advent of satellites in the early 1990s, global records of ocean surface height became available, revolutionizing our understanding of sea level rise.
A recent study led by Tulane University Professor Torbjörn Törnqvist compared historical climate projections with decades-long satellite data. The results showed that early predictions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were impressively accurate, particularly when considering the crude models used at the time.
“Early IPCC reports gave considerable confidence in today’s more advanced models,” said Törnqvist. “For anyone who questions the role of humans in changing our climate, this is some of the best proof we have.”
The study highlights the importance of translating global patterns into regional forecasts and emphasizes the need for continued monitoring of sea levels to inform decision-making along coastlines.
According to NASA, the rate of sea level rise has doubled over three decades, from an average increase of about one eighth of an inch per year in the 1990s to nearly 2 inches by 2024. The study also reveals that ice sheets accounted for nearly a quarter of observed sea-level rise, with melting glaciers and groundwater depletion contributing to the overall increase.
The researchers note that modern assessments now highlight the “deep uncertainty” surrounding possible ice-sheet disintegration, which could drive sea levels far higher than expected. However, they also emphasize that the study’s findings offer confidence in today’s more advanced models, particularly since early reports successfully predicted atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
Continuous monitoring of all relevant components of the climate system is crucial for helping coastal societies prepare for what lies ahead. The study’s authors stress that ongoing uncertainty about ice sheets and human emissions requires sustained efforts to improve our understanding of sea level rise.
The study, published in the journal Earth’s Future, provides valuable insights into the accuracy of historical climate projections and highlights the importance of continued monitoring and research in the field.
Source: https://www.earth.com/news/sea-levels-are-rising-as-predicted-with-bigger-risks-ahead