Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered the most likely threat to Earth, has lost its danger status after its impact probability fell to virtually zero. However, it still poses a slight chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032, offering scientists an opportunity for valuable science data.
The estimated diameter of this asteroid ranges from 40 to 90 meters, which could have caused local damage if hit by humans. To refine its orbit, astronomers collaborated globally using telescopes in Hawaii, New Mexico, and Chile. The effort paid off, reducing the asteroid’s impact probability on Earth from 3.1% to less than 1 in a million.
In contrast, the Moon impact has increased to between 1% and 2%, providing an opportunity for scientists to study the asteroid’s composition and structure as it collides with the lunar surface. This could aid future asteroid redirection efforts and help understand the lunar subsurface through ejected material.
Richard Binzel, a MIT expert, emphasizes that while the Moon impact probability is low, this event offers a rare scientific chance. “We would love for that scientific bonanza to befall us,” he says.
Mark Boslough from the University of New Mexico is intrigued by the possibilities and suggests sending observational missions to the Moon, including seismometers, debris trackers, and imagers.
The discovery of 2024 YR4 served as a test case for asteroid reporting and reaction, with scientists praising global cooperation in obtaining accurate data. As new telescopes emerge, Binzel notes that future discoveries will require similar efforts to provide definitive answers, emphasizing the importance of continued scientific collaboration.
Source: https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/asteroid-wont-hit-earth-but-might-hit-moon-a-potential-science-bonanza