A submarine volcano near Oregon, Axial Seamount, is showing signs of increased activity and scientists predict it could erupt before the end of 2025. Located off the US west coast, Axial has been the site of three recent eruptions since 1997.
Researchers Bill Chadwick and Scott Nooner have been monitoring Axial’s activity, noting a characteristic inflation of its surface in months leading up to an eruption. This is typically accompanied by increased seismic activity, with hundreds of quakes detected daily.
In January 2024, the rate of seafloor swelling around Axial doubled from 5-10 centimeters per year, before accelerating and leveling out at 15 centimeters per year by late July. Seismicity skyrocketed, with over 500 earthquakes recorded on some days, indicating a major shift in magma supply.
According to Chadwick and Nooner, the volcano “can’t do this forever,” suggesting it will need to unload pressure soon. Their forecast is based on patterns of behavior that correlate with previous eruptions, but they caution that this doesn’t mean an eruption is guaranteed.
By observing Axial’s activity over the coming year, researchers hope to refine their understanding of the volcano’s patterns, providing valuable insights for forecasting volcanic activity elsewhere.
Source: https://www.iflscience.com/undersea-volcano-off-the-us-west-coast-predicted-to-erupt-in-2025-77426