A recent earthquake in Myanmar has led researchers at California Institute of Technology to re-examine seismic models used to predict future earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault. The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, aimed to refine models by analyzing a Mw7.7 Mandalay earthquake that occurred in March 2025.
The disaster affected Myanmar and surrounding countries, causing widespread damage and loss of life. Researchers used satellite imagery to study the pre- and post-quake landscapes, revealing an unusually long rupture along a 510-kilometer section of the Sagaing Fault. This was significantly longer than expected, according to seismic gap hypothesis models.
Similarities between the Sagaing Fault and San Andreas Fault in California suggest that re-evaluation is necessary. Current seismic hazard models rely on statistical patterns of past earthquakes but fail to consider the current state of a fault. New research indicates that future earthquakes may not simply repeat past events and could release more strain than anticipated.
According to Jean-Philippe Avouac, lead researcher, “Future earthquakes might not be simple re-runs of past earthquakes. Successive ruptures can be very different and release even more strain.” The study highlights the limitations of traditional statistical models, which are often based on historical records that may not accurately represent future patterns.
The researchers suggest using physics-based models as an alternative approach, which could be tuned to observations for time-dependent forecasts.
Source: https://www.iflscience.com/california-is-overdue-a-massive-earthquake-but-we-may-have-been-picturing-it-all-wrong-80406