Researchers have found that sea-level projections made in the mid-1990s were remarkably accurate, with some models coming close to predicting the actual rise of nearly 9 centimeters over 30 years. A study published in Earth’s Future, an open-access journal, compares climate projections from the 1990s with current data measured by satellites for more than three decades.
The study highlights the importance of continuing to monitor global sea-level change and making accurate projections tailored to specific regional needs. The researchers used satellite data from NASA and NOAA to analyze the rate of global sea-level rise, which has averaged about one eighth of an inch per year since the 1990s. However, their analysis also revealed that this rate is accelerating.
The findings were compared with climate projections made in 1996 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which projected a 30-year sea-level rise of almost 8 centimeters. The current data shows an actual rise of 9 centimeters, while underestimating the role of melting ice sheets.
The researchers emphasize that continuing these efforts is crucial for informed decision-making in coastal regions. They also caution that future projections may be affected by low-lying coastal regions in the United States and other areas, particularly if catastrophic ice-sheet collapse were to occur in Antarctica before the end of this century.
Source: https://news.tulane.edu/pr/study-finds-sea-level-projections-1990s-were-spot