The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recorded a 35% increase in global sea levels in 2024, with an average rise of 0.23 inches per year – the highest in three decades. According to NASA’s sea level researcher Josh Willis, “the rate of rise is getting faster and faster.”
The rapid ocean expansion is mainly due to the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, as well as thermal expansion caused by warmer water. With Earth’s oceans at their highest levels in over 30 years, surfers are now facing concerns about the future of popular breaks.
Swellnet Surf Forecaster Craig Brokensha notes that daily forecasting may not be significantly impacted by sea level rises, but long-term changes could affect coastal areas. “Static reefs and rocky points will experience a slow evolution in wave shape,” he warns. Beaches are particularly vulnerable to erosion events as the coastline becomes more dynamic.
Tidal-affected breaks can remain unchanged for decades, but other spots may see significant changes within a few years or even a decade. As the ocean continues to rise, surfers must be prepared for the possibility of losing beloved haunts and homes to the sea.
Source: https://www.surfer.com/news/how-unexpected-sea-level-rise-effects-where-you-surf