This year’s Oscars have been a surprising and unpredictable race for best picture. Initially, the frontrunners were Conclave, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, September 5, The Brutalist, or Emilia Pérez, with the latter two consistently leading the pack after winning major film awards at last month’s Golden Globes. However, a significant shift occurred when Anora, a crime musical and Sean Baker’s frenetic comedy, took home three major wins over the weekend: best picture at the Critics Choice Awards, top prize at the Producers Guild Awards, and best director at the Directors Guild Awards.
While these wins are not as crucial as the PGA and DGA awards in predicting the eventual best picture winner, they do provide a clearer indication of where the Oscars are heading. Historically, the PGA and DGA winners have mirrored the eventual best picture Oscar winner with only a few exceptions.
Anora’s unexpected victories make it a strong contender for best picture, especially considering its budget of $6 million, which is significantly lower than some of this year’s other nominees. The film also boasts a standout performance from Mikey Madison, who plays the titular character in a brash breakout role as a sex worker swept off her feet.
However, Anora faces stiff competition from Emilia Pérez, another musical that has been praised for its inclusivity and positive message. Yet, the film’s recent downfall due to controversy surrounding star Karla Sofía Gascón’s bigoted tweets has left many voters reconsidering their support for the title.
Anora’s chances now seem more promising, as it fills a gap in the best picture category that might be harder to fulfill with Emilia Pérez. A victory for Anora would reflect the evolving nature of Oscar voting, which is increasingly embracing smaller films and female-led stories. With odds dramatically slashed, Anora has become the betting favourite for best picture, but its fate will be decided on March 2nd at the Oscars.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/feb/11/anora-oscars-best-picture