Recent government shutdowns have left politicians scrambling to shape the narrative for the 2026 election. However, recent history suggests that a prolonged shutdown may not have a significant impact on voters’ decisions.
The Democratic campaign arm has launched digital ads in competitive districts, accusing Republicans of “standing in the way of affordable healthcare.” Meanwhile, House Republicans are running their own ads, claiming Democrats want to use a shutdown to stop President Trump’s policies. However, recent examples of government shutdowns demonstrate that the electoral fallout is often minimal.
The 2013 shutdown lasted for 16 days and was largely seen as a negotiating tactic by Republicans seeking changes to the Affordable Care Act. Despite this, voters moved on quickly, with Republicans gaining seats in both the House and Senate during the 2014 midterm elections. The same can be said for the 2018-2019 partial shutdown, which lasted 35 days but did not significantly impact voter turnout.
It’s worth noting that a lengthy and painful shutdown could potentially change the dynamic of the upcoming election. However, with the relatively small amount of money dedicated to ad buys, it appears both parties are eyeing bigger fights ahead.
The main issues driving the campaign are healthcare vs. immigration. Democrats focus on affordability and rising prices, while Republicans pivot to immigration as a key issue. Immigrants who are in the US illegally are not eligible for federal healthcare programs, but Democrats say they’re not looking to change that.
Source: https://apnews.com/article/government-shutdown-elections-republicans-democrats-campaign-ads-a264af20a7e626e7fe2861d2cbf413b5