The National Federation of Independent Business’ Uncertainty Index has hit its second-highest level on record, leaving small business owners concerned about the US economy’s future. The index climbed in February, with a significant drop in respondents who believe it’s a good time to expand.
According to Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist, “Uncertainty is high and rising” among Main Street businesses due to fading confidence in economic growth. President Donald Trump’s trade policy changes have caused confusion, sparking fears of inflation and recession.
The White House often cites NFIB data as a sign of economic strength, but since Trump’s election, optimism has declined. A looming global trade war, coupled with signs of a struggling economy, is making small businesses hesitant to invest.
“The uncertainty we face in the economy has no set timeline,” said Mark Valentino, head of business banking at Citizens Bank. “Business owners are reevaluating vendor contracts and labor force strategies due to rising tariffs.”
The Trump administration’s trade policy overhaul, including 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and increased duties on China, is causing uncertainty among small businesses. The NFIB survey found that labor costs are a major concern, with the share of respondents deeming it their biggest problem jumping in February.
With over 33 million small businesses in the US, employing nearly half of all private-sector workers, this uncertainty could have far-reaching consequences for the economy and American businesses.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/11/economy/small-business-uncertainty-nfib/index.html