A powerful solar eruption from the Earth-facing sunspot region 4168 is expected to trigger northern lights as far south as northern Michigan and Maine on August 8. The M4.4 solar flare unleashed a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space, which may still have a glancing blow on Earth.
The CME launched sideways, but there is a chance it could clip the planet, potentially sparking a minor geomagnetic storm. This could lead to visible auroras in regions typically too far north for such displays. However, the likelihood of this occurring depends on various factors, including the orientation of the CME’s magnetic field.
NASA’s WSA-ENLIL+Cone model indicates the potential impact on August 8th around 6h UTC with a margin of error of ±8 hours. The U.K. Met Office notes that there is a likelihood of an Earth-directed component, but their confidence in this forecast is low.
For northern lights to appear, the CME’s magnetic field must point southward to effectively connect and transfer energy into our magnetosphere. If it points north instead, the auroras may be canceled out. As always with the sun, stay tuned for updates on this developing story.
Source: https://www.space.com/astronomy/sun/solar-storm-launched-from-busy-sunspot-could-trigger-auroras-on-aug-8