South Sudan’s fragile peace has been strained to breaking point by clashes between government and opposition forces, with the country teetering on the brink of full-scale civil war. The UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan has warned that a return to conflict would have devastating consequences for the region.
The crisis began when President Salva Kiir’s South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Government (SPLM-IG) failed to implement the 2018 peace agreement, leading to increased tensions with Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO). The opposition leader was recently arrested and placed under house arrest.
The situation has been further complicated by spillover from the war in Sudan, with reports of clashes between government forces and opposition groups. The government has responded with air strikes on opposition positions, causing civilian casualties and displacement.
The international community has stepped in to try to de-escalate tensions, with high-level diplomatic activity led by the UN, African Union, and regional leaders from Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia. Western diplomats and local church leaders have also appealed for dialogue.
However, concerns remain that President Kiir is consolidating power and sidelining opposition figures, leading to speculation about his succession. The businessman Benjamin Bol Mel has emerged as a potential successor, despite lacking a political or military base.
The situation in South Sudan is critical, with the country at risk of being drawn into wider geopolitical tensions linked to external support for Sudan’s warring factions. A meaningful response from Machar and his SPLM-IO is unlikely unless sustained government violence unifies the ethnic Nuer opposition.
Source: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/04/south-sudans-shaky-peace-risk-collapse-can-it-be-saved