Satellite operators face significant challenges in maintaining the safety and efficiency of their satellites due to growing concerns over space weather events. A recent major solar storm, known as the Gannon Storm, highlighted the need for better space weather models to predict and mitigate potential collisions and reduced lifetimes.
The increasing population of satellites in low Earth orbit, driven by megaconstellations like SpaceX’s Starlink, has exacerbated this issue. The Gannon Storm caused a spike in atmospheric density that affected the accuracy of orbits used for predicting potential collisions, resulting in errors ranging from 1 to 1,000 kilometers over a day.
Human spaceflight safety requires accuracies of 100 to 200 meters, but the current errors are hundreds of kilometers, invalidating spaceflight safety. Satellite operators need models that are accurate, predictive, and timely, as well as atmospheric models that can incorporate these predictions to model density and drag.
The Gannon Storm also revealed “mass migrations” of thousands of Starlink satellites performing automated maneuvers to raise their orbits, which can affect space safety. The space weather community must work with satellite operators to improve forecast accuracy or provide better information on uncertainties in forecasts.
Reduced lifetimes of spacecraft due to higher atmospheric drag are also a concern. Capella Space found that drag much higher than forecast shortened the orbital lifetime of its Whitney series of satellites, resulting in decreased lifetimes by a corresponding amount.
To address these challenges, experts propose developing more accurate and detailed space weather models. Companies like Leonid Space aim to provide satellite operators with better estimates of satellite lifetimes, bridging the gap between the academic community and industry.
Source: https://spacenews.com/satellite-operators-want-better-space-weather-models