Strategas CEO Jason Trennert believes the chances of a recession in 2025 are low due to tight labor markets, strong corporate profits, and credit spreads. However, he warns that market performance will be challenging in the new year, particularly with rich multiples from 2024.
Trennert’s biggest fear for 2025 is another wave of inflation, which could lead to higher interest rates and make it difficult for companies to maintain profit margins. He notes that historically, once a country experiences one wave of inflation, there’s an 80% chance of another wave occurring.
The CEO also discusses the potential impact of Bitcoin on the market in 2025. While he acknowledges its price increase post-election was driven by reduced regulatory risks, he expects the pace of appreciation to slow down due to a stronger US dollar and increased competition from other digital currencies.
Trennert is more optimistic about gold, which he believes has a long-term brand of protecting against inflation. He currently owns gold but notes that his excitement for the metal has decreased slightly following the election, which saw the value of the US dollar improve.
Source: https://qz.com/bitcoin-price-might-stall-2025-recession-risk-low-1851726920