A new study published in the journal Science suggests that superflares, incredibly powerful bursts of radiation, may occur on our sun every 100 years. The research, led by Valeriy Vasilyev of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Germany, analyzed data from NASA’s retired Kepler space telescope to determine the rate at which superflares occur in stars similar to our sun.
According to the study, about one in 20 sun-like stars produce a superflare, with the events occurring approximately once every 100 years. This rate is significantly higher than previously measured, at least 30 times greater.
The team’s new method of matching observed flares to their host stars allowed for more accurate analysis and provided a better understanding of what makes a star sun-like. The findings suggest that our sun may be capable of unleashing a superflare, although the exact probability is uncertain.
“This is really huge difference,” said Dr. Vasilyev. “It’s a large-impact event that space weather experts need to better quantify.”
The study’s lead author, Yuta Notsu, noted that estimating low-probability but large-impact events can help provide an answer to how often our sun might produce a superflare. The researchers plan to continue their work with future data from other space telescopes and hope to refine their analysis using X-rays and ultraviolet light.
While scientists are uncertain about the likelihood of a superflare, Dr. Hudson, an astronomer at the University of Glasgow in Scotland, emphasized the need for continued research and monitoring. “A solar superflare is something that society needs to worry about,” he said, as it could pose significant damage and chaos.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/science/sun-superflares-stars.html