A dramatic escalation in Syria has unfolded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Salafi-jihadi group led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, launched a highly effective offensive against the Syrian Arab Army. Jonathan Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum and columnist for The Jerusalem Post, attributes this to several factors, including Iran’s distraction with Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s substantial losses.
Syria has been divided into three distinct areas of control over the past half-decade: 60% controlled by the Assad regime, 30% held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and 10% home to remnants of the Sunni Arab and Islamist rebellion. HTS operates in northwest Syria, where its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has managed to create a tightly governed area.
Spyer warns against misinterpreting Julani’s pragmatism as moderation, emphasizing that he remains committed to jihad. The ability to navigate complexities has kept him alive, unlike many of his contemporaries.
HTS’s recent offensive highlights the weakness of the Assad regime and its allies. Spyer attributes this to Iran’s preoccupation with Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s substantial losses. A resurgent Assad regime backed by Iran and Hezbollah would be disastrous for Israel and the West.
International attention focuses on other areas, but concerns over the fate of minority communities under HTS’s path remain. The West needs to address HTS’s record with non-Muslim populations. Spyer cautions against ignoring the potential humanitarian crisis in Syria, highlighting the need for Western powers to prioritize the safety of large Kurdish and Christian populations.
The Syrian conflict serves as a microcosm of broader regional tensions, with competing powers vying for influence in a complex landscape.
Source: https://www.jpost.com/podcast/jpost-podcast/article-832157