US President Donald Trump is set to oversee a new peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the agreement known as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) or “Trump Bridge.” The proposed project would link Azerbaijan’s mainland to its exclave province of Nakhchivan through Armenia via the hotly contested Zangezur corridor.
The deal comes amid rapid shifts in the South Caucasus, where Azerbaijan launched a swift offensive to seize control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023. The defeat has left Armenia reconsidering its regional position and alliance with Russia.
Experts believe that Trump’s efforts in the South Caucasus are an opportunity for both him and the region. Olesya Vartanyan, a conflict expert, stated that the deal could increase stability and reduce the chances of war in the region. However, questions still linger over the execution of the agreement, including transportation details.
Ali Mammodov, a researcher at George Mason University, noted that Trump’s diplomatic intervention fits within a broader trend of transactional diplomacy. He argued that championing such a project would allow Trump to present a tangible peace dividend and potentially branding it as a personal success.
Meanwhile, Joshua Kucera, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, expressed concerns over the execution of the agreement, citing crucial details that are yet unknown. Tigran Grigoryan, director of the Regional Center for Democracy and Security in Armenia, emphasized the importance of securing reciprocal rights for both countries.
The impact of the expected deal is likely to extend beyond the two nations and have ramifications for regional powers Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Each of these actors views the South Caucasus as part of its strategic perimeter, making any US engagement particularly sensitive.
While Azerbaijan has cultivated close relations with Turkey, Iran would likely oppose any measure that threatens to cut off this link. For Russia, the issue is even more sensitive given its waning position in the region. Experts argue that Trump’s efforts could lead to Armenia and Azerbaijan achieving more stability and peace, while further solidifying Russia’s loss of leverage in the South Caucasus.
Overall, the “Trump Route” initiative holds significant potential for regional cooperation and stability in the South Caucasus.
Source: https://www.newsweek.com/azerbaijan-armenia-russia-trump-bridge-caucuses-2110489