The Trump administration is demanding direct talks with Iran, warning that failure to negotiate would mean “nothing.” This stance has raised concerns about the potential for military action, but analysts believe a breakthrough is possible. The negotiations’ success depends on finding common ground between the US and Iranian positions.
In his latest column, David Marusic Damir reported that Trump’s team wants direct talks due to mistrust between the two countries. However, Araghchi prefers indirect talks as a way to deal with this issue. This format may be fudged to ensure each side gets what it wants.
Jason Rezaian points out that the US lost leverage after pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but directness signals a seriousness Trump’s team lacked in his first term. For Iran, playing hard to get appears appealing to the “hardest-line” crowd.
Damir Jason Rezaian reports that the Iranian media landscape is divided between those who want zero discussion with America and those who believe an agreement is necessary for economic survival. The latter group is gaining momentum.
Trump has threatened violence if talks don’t happen, but analysts question its credibility given the state of the world economy. A war in the Persian Gulf could exacerbate market chaos.
Jason Rezaian acknowledges that a threat of strikes is always credible due to Israel’s demonstrated ability to damage Iranian targets. However, Trump seems unlikely to engage in military actions against Iran, as it did not benefit him during his first term.
David Marusic Damir suggests taking Trump at his word when he says he doesn’t want more wars in the Middle East. However, a two-month deadline for talks might be symbolic rather than real.
Damir David Marusic Damir asks whether destroying Iran’s nuclear program with airstrikes is possible or just damaging it enough. Experts believe that while a big attack could keep the Iranians out of the game for several years, the centrifuges could be replaced or repaired, and the scientific expertise remains intact.
The Israelis want full denuclearization from Iran, but the Iranians are unlikely to agree to complete abandonment. A middle-ground outcome is possible, but skepticism surrounds these negotiations due to differing US and Israeli positions.
David Marusic Damir expresses optimism about a breakthrough, as Trump wants a big win. A successful negotiation would be a significant achievement for the Trump administration.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2025/trump-us-iran-direct-talks