US President Donald Trump’s stance on the Iran nuclear deal has shifted, marking an abrupt turnaround from his earlier decision to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In 2018, Trump criticized the deal’s sunset clauses and sanctions relief, but many believed it was the best option available at the time due to its ability to provide time for a more permanent resolution.
Today, Iran is on the cusp of having enough enriched uranium to fuel a nuclear bomb, with the ability to produce up to five additional bombs in months. Given this timeframe, any deal would need to be far more stringent than the JCPOA. Trump’s decision to leave the agreement increased pressure on Iran, but it also provided an excuse for the country to advance its nuclear program.
Ongoing debate within the Trump administration has led to confusion over the president’s ultimate strategy for Iran. Negotiations are underway, with National Security Advisor Mike Waltz emphasizing that all aspects of Iran’s nuclear program need to be addressed. However, in recent days, Trump and his envoy Steve Witkoff have made statements suggesting a more limited deal.
The potential for a narrow agreement should not be underestimated, as it could lead to increased tensions and sanctions relief that would benefit terrorist organizations such as the Houthis and Hezbollah. A wider agreement is less likely, given Iran’s strong redlines and the country’s interest in maintaining its nuclear program.
As negotiations continue this weekend in Rome, Trump is right to seek a deal before considering military action against Iran. However, time is almost up for a more comprehensive resolution, making it crucial that any deal addresses the broader challenges facing the region, including malign influence, terrorism, and ballistic missiles.
Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/trump-cant-afford-to-simply-revive-obamas-nuclear-deal