The idea of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US under the Trump administration has been touted as a way to create high-paying jobs with solid benefits. However, a closer look at the data and historical context reveals that this goal is unlikely to materialize.
Both Trump and Biden administrations faced similar economic dynamics when addressing US manufacturing. The number of manufacturing jobs added and lost during their presidencies followed a similar pattern: growth in 2017-2018, followed by decline in 2019-2020. A comparison of the job losses under Trump’s presidency (188,000) and Biden’s administration (13,000) also shows a similar trend.
To understand the state of manufacturing, it’s essential to examine the bigger picture. The graph showing the number of manufacturing employees from 1939 to March 2025 reveals two major changes: the great manufacturing outsourcing wave and the shift towards higher-profit, more efficient manufacturing in the US.
The outsourcing wave led companies to take advantage of cheaper labor and looser environmental regulations in countries like China. This resulted in significant job losses, as manufacturers could produce goods with fewer employees. Additionally, advancements in automation have made it possible for companies to maintain high output levels with significantly fewer workers.
In light of this information, it’s unlikely that the US will ever need the same number of manufacturing employees again. Even if new factories were built, it would take years to establish and staff them, leaving another administration to claim credit. A more realistic approach might be to focus on creating high-skilled jobs in emerging industries rather than trying to revive a declining sector.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2025/04/27/why-trumps-tariffs-likely-arent-a-quick-manufacturing-jobs-fix