The US has paused sweeping tariffs since April, promising 90 trade deals in 90 days to reshape the global economic order. With only two weeks left, a single deal and shaky detente are all that remain, leaving maximum uncertainty about the rest.
President Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on European goods if no deal is reached by July 9, as well as restart substantial tariffs against dozens of other countries. However, financial markets have shown resilience, with stocks up 20% since the pause began, shrugging off trade tensions and economic concerns.
Despite this optimism, businesses are anxious about what comes next. Economist Torsten Slok predicts a 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months if tariffs remain in place, and even higher interest rates for an extended period.
The US has made progress with the UK and China on trade deals, but nothing else is done. Uncertainty remains over how close other agreements are to completion. Trump’s administration has faced criticism for its lack of progress, with some reports suggesting that deals may not be imminent after all.
As the July 8 deadline approaches, investors must prepare for potential volatility. While negotiations with trading partners continue, the uncertainty surrounding global trade deals is mounting. The US economy is watching closely to see what Trump’s administration will do next.
Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/06/25/trump-tariffs-china-mexico-canada