The recent special House election in Florida and the Supreme Court election in Wisconsin confirm that Democratic voters have not been stunned into submission by last November’s election results. This trend suggests that Democrats will likely continue to excel in low-turnout elections, where they can capitalize on their advantage among highly informed and educated voters.
However, this does not necessarily mean that Democrats have solved all the problems that cost them the 2020 election. Instead, the party’s performance reflects its ongoing advantage among certain demographics. The upcoming midterm election is likely to feature major Democratic victories.
President Trump’s sweeping tariffs have introduced significant political risks for Republicans. Historically, even dominant parties have suffered major defeats during economic downturns, and it is unlikely that the Republican Party can escape this fate. Mr. Trump’s reliance on a strong economy has been a key factor in his political strength, but this could be a liability if the tariffs cause an economic downturn.
The recent tariffs announced by President Trump have already taken a toll on his approval ratings and the overall mood of the country. Consumer confidence is falling, inflation expectations are rising, and polls show that the tariffs themselves are unpopular. If the tariffs lead to a recession, it could further erode Mr. Trump’s support and create problems for Republicans who oppose him.
The Republican Party’s continued support for Mr. Trump’s policies, including his trade agenda, is likely to become increasingly difficult in the coming months. The party’s moderate wing is already showing signs of opposition, with several senators supporting legislation to rein in the president’s authority on tariffs. This opposition could grow if the economic fallout from the tariffs is severe.
Overall, President Trump’s second term is looking more uncertain than initially thought, and the prospects for a “golden age” of Republican dominance are increasingly unlikely. As the economy continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how this will impact the party’s fortunes and the country at large.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/upshot/trump-tariffs-republicans-risk.html