The 2026 midterm elections are still years away, but Republican strategists believe their party can weather the coming attacks on President Donald Trump’s spending and tax cut bill. The bill, which includes provisions to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, lift the state and local tax cap, and cut Medicaid spending, is a high-risk gamble for Republicans.
History is not on their side, as past attempts at similar legislation have failed to deliver electoral success. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, sparking concerns among deficit-conscious Republicans.
Despite this, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has vowed to push the bill forward, citing its importance to Republican voters. However, Democrats are already criticizing the legislation as a “gift” for their party, highlighting its potential impact on low-income Americans.
Veteran politicians Karl Rove and Rahm Emanuel have weighed in on the debate, with Rove urging Republicans to promote the new work requirements for Medicaid recipients and hammer Democrats for failing to root out fraud. Emanuel, meanwhile, has accused Trump of peddling a simplistic “tax cuts for the wealthy” narrative that ignores the bill’s negative impact on vulnerable populations.
As the battle for control of Congress heats up, Republican strategists are divided on whether the bill will ultimately boost their party or prove disastrous. Some, like Kristin Davison and Brent Buchanan, believe that tariffs and the tax bill will have faded from memory by the 2026 midterms, while others, like Corry Bliss, argue that Trump’s effectiveness as a communicator will help Republicans persuade voters of the bill’s benefits.
Despite these divisions, one thing is clear: the 2026 midterm elections will be shaped by the “Big Beautiful Bill” and its potential impact on voters’ perceptions of Trump and his agenda.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/25/big-beautiful-bill-midterms-trump