The US Senate is likely to make significant changes to House-passed legislation affecting President Donald Trump’s domestic priorities, with the fate of his “Big, Beautiful Bill” hanging in the balance. However, a major landmine on the road to passage may not be Republican divisions over Medicaid cuts or national debt increases, but rather Trump’s trade agenda.
Trump’s efforts to rewrite the DNA of global commerce could complicate the bill by diverting energy from lawmakers or inviting changes to address market and public dissatisfaction. The president recently announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on European Union goods starting June 1 and a 25% tax on iPhones manufactured abroad, sparking concerns over shortages and price increases.
The looming threat of tariffs is a ticking time bomb for the bill, with major retailers like Walmart warning of impending higher prices and Trump himself acknowledging potential shortages. The Yale University Budget Lab estimates that current tariff rates will cost the average American household $2,800 this year.
Trump’s trade moves have already sparked skepticism in financial markets, with bond yields plummeting and inflation concerns on the rise. If the tariffs are not repealed before July 4, when they were initially imposed, market chaos is likely to ensue. The outcome of the bill remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Trump’s trade agenda is a major obstacle to passage.
Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/u-s-news-decision-points/articles/2025-05-23/the-biggest-obstacle-to-trumps-big-spending-bill