The sudden fall of Syrian leader Bashar Assad has triggered a new round of delicate geopolitics between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With the dust settling, Ankara appears to be emerging stronger, having backed victorious rebels that have captured Damascus.
Experts say the relationship between Moscow and Ankara is one of competitors rather than allies. Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, described Russia’s defeat as “Sultans 1 and Czars 0.” This move gives Turkey significant leverage in negotiations with Putin.
The two leaders have a complex history of cooperation and rivalry, particularly over Syria’s civil war. Tensions between Moscow and Ankara reached their peak when a Turkish fighter jet downed a Russian warplane in 2015. Since then, Erdogan has sought to increase his influence in the region, including negotiating a ceasefire deal with Russia in 2018.
However, while economic ties have grown stronger, relations are also strained due to disagreements over Ukraine and Libya. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further complicated ties between Moscow and Ankara. Turkey supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but Erdogan echoed Putin’s views on US involvement in the conflict.
Despite these challenges, Ankara has managed to maintain close relationships with both sides. In September, Azerbaijan reclaimed control over Karabakh from Russian-backed forces, which hurt Russia’s ties with Armenia. Moscow now seeks to maintain influence through a military presence and contacts with other regional players like Turkey.
Putin acknowledged Turkey’s motives in securing its borders but warned of strong resistance from Kurdish fighters if attacked. Experts expect Turkey to seek more concessions on energy and trade issues from Russia.
The fall of Assad provides Turkey an opportunity to reassert its dominance in the region, particularly in Syria. However, the relationship between Moscow and Ankara remains complex, and both sides will likely navigate their new dynamics carefully.
Source: https://apnews.com/article/russia-turkey-putin-erdogan-syria-assad-afbfc5a271438c0c61142f8cb9fcb6f4