Turkey is on the brink of a historic peace deal with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), following a surprise announcement by its jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan. The development could have far-reaching implications for Turkey and the wider Middle East.
The PKK, which has been fighting for Kurdish independence in southeastern Turkey since 1984, has called on its members to lay down arms and dissolve the group. If successful, this would mark a significant turning point for Turkey’s troubled conflict with the PKK, which has claimed over 40,000 lives.
Ocalan founded the PKK in 1978 as a Kurdish separatist group in Turkey, but the group’s goals have evolved over time. In recent years, the PKK has called for more autonomy within Turkey rather than independence. The group is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, EU, and Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reportedly seeking to use the PKK’s desire for peace to further his own ambitions. He plans to run for a third term in office in 2028, but requires a two-thirds majority vote in parliament to secure the constitutional change that would allow him to do so.
The pro-Kurdish DEM party has been seen as crucial to Erdogan’s bid for power, and some experts believe that Ocalan’s call for peace could be a way for the president to win their support. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Erdogan’s right-wing ally, is also backing the peace process.
The prospects of Kurdish-Turkish peace are uncertain, however. Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes that Erdogan has previously failed to make peace with the PKK because he wouldn’t acknowledge Kurdish demands.
If the PKK does disarm, it could have significant regional implications. Turkey fears that rivals like Iran and Israel will exploit its conflict with the PKK if it ends. The situation in Syria is particularly complex, with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed force backed by the YPG, facing pressure to integrate into the national army.
The development has also been met with skepticism from some quarters. Israel sees Syria’s Kurds as a potential ally and has called for them to be protected against Turkish military action. The Trump administration is unlikely to oppose Ocalan’s move, however.
Ultimately, the success of the peace deal will depend on whether Ocalan and the Kurds can gain anything in return for their willingness to disarm. As Tol noted, “Each previous attempt has ended in failure, and skeptics argue that Erdogan’s peace efforts never address Kurdish democratic demands.”
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/28/middleeast/turkey-pkk-insurgency-middle-east-explainer-intl/index.html