A new tariff simulator from the Observatory of Economic Complexity predicts that China’s exports to the US could decline by $485 billion by 2027, due to current tariffs. This is a larger decline than global exports to the US, when considering all nations.
The forecast is based on the latest tariffs implemented between the US and China, with combined US tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 51% and US exports to China facing 32.6% tariffs. The US has threatened higher tariffs on Chinese goods if no deal is reached by August 12, which could take tariff rates to as high as 145%.
Countries linked to the Chinese manufacturing economy will experience US export weakness, including Vietnam and South Korea. Goods like broadcasting equipment and computers from China are expected to decline in value.
However, even as the US threatens additional tariffs on North American trading partners, it will import more from Canada, Mexico, and the UK. The current level of Chinese tariffs has already led to a decline in Chinese exports entering the US.
According to ocean freight data, container volumes at the Port of Los Angeles have declined since the trade war began. Retail groups have warned that the cycle of tariff threats and delays adds to uncertainty, and hesitancy in moving forward with orders.
The tariff simulator also predicts that China will pull back on its acceptance of US exports, with a decline of $101 billion through 2027. The biggest US export losers will include soybeans, integrated circuits, and cars. Russia is expected to win the lion’s share of increased trade with China, at $69.8 billion.
The impact of the US-China trade war on US companies like Ikea and Walmart has been significant. Texas and California are expected to bear the brunt of a decline in trade with China, led by electrical machinery and electronics, mineral fuels, and machinery exports.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/28/chinese-trade-to-us-could-drop-by-485-billion-tariff-simulator.html