The U.S. Space Force anticipates a 25% to 30% increase in orbital launches over the next two years, driven by growing military, civil, and commercial payloads. Program Executive Officer Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen indicated thatSpace Force operations have been steadily increasing at about 25-30% annually for several years, and this trend is expected to continue. Global launch activity rose to 263 attempts in 2024, with all but five reaching orbit, as tracked by Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell.
The Space Force launched 144 missions from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg space force bases, with 93 from Cape Canaveral and 51 from Vandenberg. Five National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 payloads were launched in 2024, with four on Cape Canaveral and one on Vandenberg. In 2025, theSpace Force expects to support 18 NSSL-related launches, with 11 missions planned for the ULA Vulcan rocket and seven for SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
Certification of ULA’s Vulcan rocket forN SSL missions is pending after two successful test flights in 2024. An anomaly during a previous test flight resulted in reduced thrust. Meanwhile, theSpace Force faces challenges due to a workforce based on pre-2017 launch rates, with ongoing efforts to streamline operations and automate processes.
The growing commercial sector has shifted the balance of government and national security missions versus private customer payloads, though theSpace Force remains focused on sustaining its operational tempo despite staffing concerns.
Source: https://aviationweek.com/space/launch-vehicles-propulsion/us-space-force-predicts-25-boost-launches-next-two-years