The assassination of a top Russian general in Moscow has sent a message to the Russian leadership, but its impact on the war effort remains limited. The operation was carried out by Ukraine’s intelligence services, which have been linked to several high-profile assassinations in Russia.
Ukraine’s security services have long relied on covert operations as a strategy of necessity, given their limited resources and capabilities compared to Russia. However, the effectiveness of such tactics is debated among experts, with some questioning whether they provide a quick jolt of satisfaction but ultimately lead to counterproductive consequences.
American officials have warned that assassinations like this one can be provocative and may anger the Russians so much that they refuse to negotiate. The Biden administration has tried to use Ukraine’s dependence on American aid as leverage to curtail such operations, with limited success.
Ukrainian officials claim that their counterintelligence efforts have thwarted plots against President Volodymyr Zelensky and his security services, but experts say Russia is less reliant on covert operations than Ukraine. Russia has responded with vows of retaliation, but so far, its intelligence services have failed to match the success of Ukrainian operatives.
The question remains whether such operations matter in the long run. Some argue that they can be an effective way for Ukraine to inflict harm on Russia and force Putin to make a deal. Others believe that they are a flawed strategy that can lead to unintended consequences.
As the war rages on, it’s clear that both sides will continue to engage in high-stakes games of cat and mouse. But for now, it seems that the impact of Ukraine’s assassination on the war effort remains limited.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/18/world/europe/russia-kirillov-ukraine-general.html