The United Nations is closely monitoring an asteroid that poses a tiny risk of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the asteroid’s impact probability to be almost 99% safe, but a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected in December 2024 and is estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the power of a nuclear bomb if it were to hit Earth. However, it’s more likely to fall into the ocean or a remote part of the planet due to its distance from Earth and uncertainties in its trajectory.
Astronomers have been refining their calculations using telescopes since January, and the asteroid is now rated at level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a close encounter that warrants attention. The impact probability usually drops to zero after additional observations, as seen in 2004 with asteroid Apophis.
To ensure the threat is closely monitored, UN-endorsed asteroid reaction groups are being activated. The International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group will monitor the asteroid’s evolution and provide recommendations if its impact probability remains above 1%. One possible option to deflect the asteroid would be to hit it with a robotic spacecraft, as demonstrated by Nasa’s Dart mission in 2022.
The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth and will begin to fade from view over the next few months. It will be monitored by ground and space telescopes, and if it becomes observable again in 2028, it may remain on the ESA’s risk list until then.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx9dgpx98go