The US auto market is expected to experience a surge in sales for the fourth quarter, with General Motors and Honda emerging as big winners, according to Cox Automotive analysts. The projected sales increase of 18.5% for GM and 5.9% for Honda will contribute to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.4 million vehicles.
However, potential policies from the incoming Trump administration raise uncertainty about the market’s outlook. Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in response to Trump’s policy shifts, which could lead to inflation and potentially higher car prices due to tariffs.
Tesla remains a dominant force in the electric vehicle (EV) market, but its sales are expected to decline slightly, down 3.3% compared to the third quarter. The company’s aging product line has been questioned by analysts, who suggest that it may have picked up some young libertarian customers in the tech industry.
Gas-hybrid market share is on the rise, with a 19% year-over-year increase in the third quarter, while plug-in hybrid sales fell 8%. Incentives for powertrain options continue to rise, reaching pre-pandemic levels of 8%.
The average transaction price (ATP) of all internal-combustion and hybrid models is $48,165 for November, with EVs at $55,105. Analysts predict that the biggest sales increases will come from compact cars and crossovers, driven by millennials living in urban areas.
In terms of market share, Toyota is expected to take second place in annual US sales, followed by Hyundai and Honda. GM will sell about 2.69 million vehicles in 2024, up 4.2% for a 16.8% market share. Honda will be up 8.1% for the year to 1.41 million and an 8.8% market share.
For buyers considering purchasing a new car or truck, it’s essential to be aware of these trends and potential impacts from the Trump administration on prices and incentives. While federal tax incentives may not make a significant difference in EV sales, tariffs are likely to raise prices for both new and used cars.
Source: https://www.autoweek.com/news/a63217408/trump-bump-fourth-quarter-us-auto-sales