Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has warned that the US economy is on the brink of recession. In a recent post on X, Zandi cited state-level data showing that nearly a third of the country’s GDP is at risk of recession or already experiencing it.
Zandi blamed high tariffs and restrictive immigration policies for the economic downturn. He noted that states in the Washington D.C. area, including Maryland and Virginia, are particularly vulnerable due to recent federal job cuts. West Virginia, Iowa, Maine, New Jersey, and South Dakota are also at risk of recession.
However, some states like California and New York, which account for over a fifth of US GDP, are holding steady. Zandi emphasized that the stability of these states is crucial for the national economy to avoid a downturn.
According to Zandi’s data, a third of the US economy’s industries is already in recession, including manufacturing and agriculture. He warned that consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall.
Zandi attributed the economic woes to tariffs cutting into American companies’ profits and households’ purchasing power, as well as the impact of restrictive immigration policies on the economy. He emphasized that his assessment is not predictive but rather based on current data and trends.
Source: https://qz.com/moodys-chief-economist-us-economy-recession